What does the Cody Bellinger signing mean for the rest of the Free Agent market?

If you missed it, the Chicago Cubs signed outfielder Cody Bellinger to a 3 year 80 million dollar contract. The fine details of the contract include player opt outs after each season, so that Bellinger can test his luck in the free agent market once again. This contract layout is similar to Carlos Correa's old deal with the Twins that saw opt outs after every season so that he can test free agency after an underwhelming first try at the market. Correa signed a 6 year extension with the Twins a year after signing this deal which Bellinger will try to follow.

The Bellinger details came as sort of a shock to a lot of the baseball industry regarding the amount of money he will be earning. Early projections this offseason had him striking a deal at or above 200 million and some estimating into the 250 million range. I think that the little money can be due to a few different reasons. One being the question of Bellinger's consistency, and some of his peripheral stats. As most know, Bellinger has been the opposite of consistent hitting below .240 in each year from 2020-2022, even hitting as bad as .165 in 2021. This is a major reason that I think teams were not willing to commit to a long term deal with Bellinger. If he provides another solid year he will be an easy candidate to opt out, and receive a longer term deal. Some other factors contributing to him not receiving a longer term deal could be attributed to his Barrel% and Hard Hit rate which were both well below average in 2023.

So where does this leave the remaining big name free agents?

Blake Snell: I do not think that Blake Snell and Cody Bellinger have too many similarities in their free agent profiles, but we have seen some unwillingness from teams to commit to big deals in this offseason. Snell has been relatively consistent and has had strikeout rates in the low 30s throughout his career. The big question mark with Snell is will he regress with walking batters. He has one of the worst walk rates in the MLB, and some people believe that this will lead to him giving up more runs and regressing to the mean with runners on base. In my opinion, this low walk rate shows his ability to put pitches in spots where they cant be damaged and we will see this cy young run of form with Snell for at least a few more years. I would be shocked to see Blake Snell settle for a contract that are below estimates, but if he had received an offer near his estimates you think he would have already signed. If a team loses a starter due to injury during spring training there is a good chance Blake Snell will be one of the first pitchers called. Possible teams that could be in the mix are the Angels, Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox, and a few others. I predict the Angels sign Blake Snell in a bit of an underwhelming contract for Snell that should include opt outs if he adds another stellar year or two on his resume. 

Jordan Montgomery: Another solid Southpaw on the market is Jordan Montgomery who is coming off a World Series win. Montgomery is one of the most solid starters in the league who you know will give you a return around the same spot every year. The Red Sox have been connected with Montgomery all winter but have yet to pull the trigger on Montgomery. His contract details could be intriguing because his value may be peaking now coming off a stellar postseason run. If teams are not willing to commit to a longer term deal with Montgomery he may have to settle for a deal similar to Cody Bellinger's. The same teams are in the running for Montgomery as Snell. If the Angels do not sign Snell, I like the Montgomery fit in Anaheim, but I think that he will eventually sign with the Red Sox to challenge for the AL East. 

Matt Chapman: Matt Chapman is known around the league for having a consistently solid bat with elite defense. This year with the Blue Jays he had a season that has been on par with his career. Chapman started off 2023 as the best player in the baseball over the first month of play, but showed signs of inconsistency and strikeout issues for the rest of the way. He is somewhat in the same boat as Bellinger with inconsistency but Chapman has shown inconsistency during the season but consistency yearly. His contract details echo Montgomery's because Chapman is only getting older, and I do not envision Chapman having some insane year that commands a massive long term contract. The four teams connected to Chapman have been the Jays, Giants, Mariners, and Cubs. Toronto has had an underwhelming offseason and bringing back Chapman would aid their quest for an AL East title. The Mariners and Cubs fall in the same boat because both of their rosters would look much better with Chapman on it, but issues arise considering payroll and the money that would have to be given out to him. The Giants have a strong case to bring in Chapman to solidify a subpar lineup as well as Chapman being a California native further signifies a possible deal with the Giants. I predict that Chapman will be a Giant, but would not be surprised if the Jays or another unmentioned team swooped in for the honors.